[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices continued to rebound on July 22. The added value of China's wholesale and retail industries from January to June was 6.8 trillion yuan, up 5.9% YoY.

SMM Nickel News on July 22:

Macro News:

(1) On Monday, Eastern US Time, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its latest estimate, indicating that the tax and spending law recently enacted by US President Trump (the so-called "Big and Beautiful" bill) would increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade and cause millions to lose health insurance. The CBO's score of the bill showed that, compared to the baseline of current law, the "Big and Beautiful" bill would reduce US fiscal revenue by $4.5 trillion and spending by $1.1 trillion by 2034.

(2) Since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Commerce has thoroughly implemented the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, accelerating the improvement of the modern commerce and trade circulation system and promoting the high-quality development of the wholesale and retail industries. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), from January to June, the added value of China's wholesale and retail industries was 6.8 trillion yuan, up 5.9% YoY, accounting for 10.3% of GDP. The development of China's wholesale and retail industries has been stable and improving, providing strong support for expanding domestic demand in all respects and strengthening the domestic circulation.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 122,300-124,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 123,550 yuan/mt, up 700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 1,900-2,100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,000 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is -100-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2509 contract opened higher and moved up in the night session, closing at 123,700 yuan/mt, up 1.5%. The morning session today continued to fluctuate at highs, with macro sentiment dominating the bullish atmosphere. As of the midday session, SHFE nickel was quoted at 122,740 yuan/mt, up 0.71%.

The MIIT announced that it would soon launch a stable growth work plan for ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, clarifying the orientation of "adjusting the structure and eliminating backward capacity". This policy continues to ferment, driving the market's optimistic expectations for supply-side reforms in industrial metals and boosting risk appetite for non-ferrous metals such as nickel. Driven by favorable macro sentiment, nickel prices on the SHFE maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with an expected price range of 120,000-125,000 yuan/mt.